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The influence of atmospheric planetary waves on the occurrence of irregularities in the low latitude ionosphere is investigated using Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) simulations and Global Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) observations. GOLD observations of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) exhibit a ∼6–8 day periodicity during January–February 2021. Analysis of WACCM‐X simulations, which are constrained to reproduce realistic weather variability in the lower atmosphere, reveals that this coincides with an amplification of the westward propagating wavenumber‐1 quasi‐six day wave (Q6DW) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The WACCM‐X simulated Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) instability growth rate, considered as a proxy of EPB occurrence, is found to exhibit a ∼6‐day periodicity that is coincident with the enhanced Q6DW in the MLT. Additional WACCM‐X simulations performed with fixed solar and geomagnetic activity demonstrate that the ∼6‐day periodicity in the R‐T instability growth rate is related to the forcing from the lower atmosphere. The simulations suggest that the Q6DW influences the day‐to‐day formation of EPBs through interaction with the migrating semidiurnal tide. This leads to periodic oscillations in the zonal winds, resulting in periodic variability in the strength of the prereversal enhancement, which influences the R‐T instability growth rate and EPBs. The results demonstrate that atmospheric planetary waves, and their interaction with atmospheric tides, can have a significant impact on the day‐to‐day variability of EPBs.

The nature of the variability of the Total Electron Content (TEC) over Europe is investigated during 2009 and 2019 Northern Hemisphere (NH) SSW events in this study by using a combination of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) based TEC observations and Thermosphere‐Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM) simulations. To simulate the SSW effects in TIE‐GCM, the dynamical fields from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) simulations of 2009 and 2019 SSWs are specified at the TIE‐GCM lower boundary. The observed and simulated TEC are in overall good agreement and therefore the simulations are used to understand the sources of mid‐latitude TEC variability during both SSWs. Through comparison of TIE‐GCM simulations with and without geomagnetic forcing, we find that the TEC variability during the 2019 SSW event, was predominantly geomagnetically forced, while for the 2009 SSW, the major variability in TEC was accounted for by the changes in vertically propagating migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides. By comparing the TIE‐GCM simulations with and without the SW2 and M2 tides, we find that these semidiurnal tides contribute to20%–25% increase in the quiet background TEC.

The dayside equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics exhibit strong variability driven simultaneously by highly changeable external forcings that originate from the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV), magnetosphere, and lower atmosphere. We investigate this variability by carrying out comprehensive data‐driven ensemble modeling using a coupled model of the thermosphere and ionosphere, with the focus on the verticalE×Bdrift variability during a solar minimum and minor storm period. The variability of verticalE×Bdrift in response to the changes and uncertainty of primary forcings (i.e., solar EUV, high‐latitude plasma convection and auroral particle precipitation, and lower‐atmospheric tide and wave forcing) is investigated by ensemble forcing sensitivity experiments that incorporate data‐driven stochastic perturbations of these forcings into the model. Second, the impact of assimilating FORMOsa SATellite‐3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC) electron density profiles (EDPs) on the reduction of uncertainty of the modeled verticalE×Bdrift variability resulting from inadequately specified external forcing is revealed. The Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) ion drift velocity observations are used for validation. The validation results support the importance of the use of a data‐driven forcing perturbation methods in ensemble modeling and data assimilation. In conclusion, the solar EUV dominates the global‐scale day‐to‐day variability, while the lower atmosphere tide and wave forcing is critical to determining the regional variability. The modeled verticalE×Bdrift is also sensitive to the magnetospheric forcing. The ensemble data assimilation of FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC EDPs helps to reduce the uncertainty and improves agreement of the modeled verticalE×Bdrifts with C/NOFS observations.

We investigate the high‐latitude mesospheric and lower thermospheric winds during the 2013 sudden stratospheric warming event using ground‐based optical Doppler remote sensing observations of the OH and O (557.7 nm) emission from Eureka (80°N, 86°W) and Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics‐General Circulation Model (TIME‐GCM) simulations. Simulations with and without lunar tidal forcing of the TIME‐GCM were performed. It has been found that the additional lunar tidal forcing only impacts slightly the semidiurnal tidal amplitude and phase at Eureka. The TIME‐GCM simulations still have noticeable discrepancies in the mean winds and the semidiurnal tidal amplitude and phase compared to the observations. The semidiurnal tidal phase shift during the stratospheric warming event may be associated with the sudden stratospheric warming related zonal mean wind reversal, which is similar to the seasonal change in the zonal mean wind from winter to summer. Accordingly, during the reversal, more modes of the semidiurnal tide propagate to the mesosphere, changing the phase of the semidiurnal tide.